Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 82939.177585 87523.920737 92104.504626 97021.049988 102145.471112 107325.776116 112955.032618
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 75529.329699 82565.707021 89789.869680 97750.865661 106267.124834 115093.773049 124923.100737
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 69808.213278 78489.617091 87597.326300 97843.305826 109026.958421 120841.814219 134245.110788
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 66212.867314 76211.215678 86889.788835 99108.040465 112664.536295 127208.214986 143953.423683
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 62248.095179 73172.599153 85028.599311 98799.488469 114300.596587 131155.749262 150813.582216
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 60044.157555 71896.774982 84941.019253 100290.754941 117784.887674 137027.306541 159716.140539
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57794.186891 70402.143997 84458.673600 101199.439346 120497.124872 141946.974417 167490.468335
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55293.765365 68471.873866 83346.586707 101264.381785 122141.208571 145575.229262 173740.521749
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52912.983876 66558.352637 82142.313803 101117.326780 123449.641698 148748.697709 179418.256917
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51834.638027 66118.180082 82601.871268 102863.880562 126922.857064 154397.861618 187955.919208
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50833.407440 65708.851819 83046.419304 104550.225479 130297.269103 159922.363819 196360.804117
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49421.368206 64734.446088 82758.306888 105312.481306 132539.320145 164099.192170 203183.673913
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47610.948549 63232.448784 81808.801877 105269.455417 133831.537829 167191.813510 208796.870901
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46156.999102 62121.425040 81292.753217 105718.220814 135694.844873 170959.695441 215231.558433
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44584.052364 60802.316673 80468.841057 105743.158162 137007.498904 174046.814177 220847.114547
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43744.460178 60375.692284 80721.058828 107072.362819 139900.529320 179037.622613 228773.239604
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42169.219529 58951.714158 79675.621760 106740.440821 140711.140071 181479.634040 233602.226915
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41571.283625 58765.417116 80170.783242 108325.932196 143893.456107 186821.253957 241988.237073
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40729.510150 58228.351167 80192.841454 109292.202285 146291.123607 191201.131024 249213.555031
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39535.746779 57187.969704 79534.598626 109361.228072 147538.229412 194149.334748 254677.402039
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38304.065488 56058.421965 78725.900235 109204.823298 148474.408480 196695.918833 259640.535199
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37983.713931 56137.869394 79480.996268 111062.133932 151975.131659 202454.710804 268629.798963
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37654.667030 56190.133529 80189.911942 112855.055306 155398.397284 208133.006883 277551.870102